Retreating America: choices before India

Bangalore, India, December 18 — When Americans elected Obama, they showed the world how fed up they were with the policies pursued by President George Bush. United States cannot sustain the wars that Bush’s policies produced in Iraq and Afghanistan, nor those proposed for Iran. Now, what should be the Indian response, especially after Mumbai, to this American retreat?

The United States will not fight China to save Taiwan or Japan. It can get its prestige back only by using nukes. It cannot fight a long, drawn-out conventional war anywhere, especially in Asia. It will leave India with two hostile nuclear powers, China and Pakistan, on its borders. We cannot even name Nepal as a friendly country. The bluff by the Pakistan army, supported by Saudi Arabia, has to be addressed now instead of waiting for U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Indian leaders and the general population though large in number, are perceived to be physically and mentally weak when it comes to fighting.

Small, determined and cunning groups of fighters have always beaten Indian leaders. The recent attacks in Mumbai by a team of ten terrorists reinforces this view. The Mumbai attack is a warning message to Obama about his idea of the right war he spoke during his election campaign. The Mumbai attack is diverting his agenda from a war of right to one of solving the Kashmir dispute (the root cause of Pakistani terrorism) by cleverly hiding the fact that Islamic jihad is being waged by the Organization of the Islamic Conference under the leadership of the Saudi caliphate. That Pakistan is doing the dirty work for the Saudi caliphate is evident in the Mumbai attacks and Americans should understand that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are the sword arms of the OIC.

It is in India's interest to play the role of an honest broker between Iran and Israel. It should ignore the U.S. and concentrate on Iran-Israel relations, which should be a priority. China has a special relationship with Pakistan. India should have supported nukes in North Korea but due to Japanese sensibilities, it did not. China has effectively neutralized India's common neighbours, like Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan. India has already given away its Tibet card, due to Kashmir.

The recent recession in America is going to affect China in a more significant way than our capitalist economy. Our stocks going down will not cause major riots. But, a significant portion of the Chinese population is dependent on exports to the West for their daily bread, and this global meltdown will affect them significantly. A small war with India in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh will divert them and the U.S. will stand silently due to their dependence on China for everything. It will also put India in its place, according to Chinese strategic thinkers.

Here, India should be very careful and deter adventurism by enhancing its air force and missile capabilities. Pakistan is saying that it would like to be the Israel of China. It is stealing top-of-the-line American weapon systems for reverse engineering with China. It also has ensured Chinese security for jihadis.

Afghanistan is the only country which voted against the creation of Pakistan in the U.N. in 1947. It is contemptuous of the Durrand line and Pakistan dreads Afghanistan aligned with India. Taliban funded by the drug trade, which corrupts ISAF forces is the only line of defense. Americans will not be there in another 4 or 5 years except their agents of the drug trade. The recent burning of 160 trucks of NATO carrying Humvees and driving some captured Humvees should have shown the Americans that it is not a Jihadi operation but a special unit of privatised terrorists drawn from Pakistan's armed forces. Gulbudin Heketmayer, Haqqani brothers and even Karzai brothers were ISI assets. Americans are interested only in the poppy trade and the ISI, Taliban and Saudies know this. How to call Pakistan army's bluff about shifting 100,000 troops to Indian border.

India's current government should abolish Article 370. The Valley Kashmiries always wanted independence including the ruling Hindu monarchs. They will go on strike as usual, as they do not like democracy under Zardari. Anyhow, they do not believe in democracy like jihadis everywhere. It is the uneducated ordinary Kashmiri who wants democracy who have repeatedly shown their love for vote.

We in India must face the consequences of this action as it will ensure our security in the long run. Our Air Force and Navy should be on high alert as Pakistan can gain only by a surprise attack as in 1965 or 1971 and we must be ready for it.

Just before the next general elections, there is going to be a terror strike (light and sound show as their media manager called it). It is better to force the Pakistani army to show its hand now than next year. The abolition of Article 370 will ensure that. Hanging convicted terrorist Afzal Guru can be a side show.